Retirement

Sequence of Returns Risk Analyzer Calculator

Show how the order of returns — not just their average — determines retirement outcomes. Compares an early-bear vs. late-bear window with the same long-run return, and attributes historical success by early-5-year experience.

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How to use

Enter your timeline, portfolio, and either a fixed first-year withdrawal amount or an initial rate.
Pick a stock allocation and optional mitigations (cash buffer, post-down-year cuts, bond tent, Social Security).
Set the historical start-year range; the analyzer isolates two windows with matched long-run return.
Compare the two sequences side by side and view the historical attribution table.

Assumptions & disclaimer

These calculators are educational. They use simplified models and the inputs you provide. Results are estimates and not personalized financial, tax, investment, or legal advice. Tax law, market behavior, and personal circumstances change — verify any assumption before acting on it, and consider working with a qualified professional for decisions that matter.

Historical returns: annual US stock (S&P 500 incl. dividends) and 10-year US Treasury data.
Cash buffer is held at 0% return and drawn first when invested allocation has a down year.
Bond tent glides equity exposure up over the first ~10 retirement years (simplified rising-equity glidepath).
Social Security amount is treated as nominal at start age and grown by inflation thereafter.